Source code for elfi.methods.inference.bolfi

"""This module contains BayesianOptimization- and BOLFI-classes."""

__all__ = ['BayesianOptimization', 'BOLFI']

import logging

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np

import elfi.methods.mcmc as mcmc
import elfi.visualization.interactive as visin
import elfi.visualization.visualization as vis
from elfi.loader import get_sub_seed
from import LCBSC
from import GPyRegression
from import stochastic_optimization
from elfi.methods.inference.parameter_inference import ParameterInference
from elfi.methods.posteriors import BolfiPosterior
from elfi.methods.results import BolfiSample, OptimizationResult
from elfi.methods.utils import arr2d_to_batch, batch_to_arr2d, ceil_to_batch_size, resolve_sigmas
from elfi.model.extensions import ModelPrior

logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)

[docs]class BayesianOptimization(ParameterInference): """Bayesian Optimization of an unknown target function.""" def __init__(self, model, target_name=None, bounds=None, initial_evidence=None, update_interval=10, target_model=None, acquisition_method=None, acq_noise_var=0, exploration_rate=10, batch_size=1, batches_per_acquisition=None, async_acq=False, **kwargs): """Initialize Bayesian optimization. Parameters ---------- model : ElfiModel or NodeReference target_name : str or NodeReference Only needed if model is an ElfiModel bounds : dict, optional The region where to estimate the posterior for each parameter in model.parameters: dict('parameter_name':(lower, upper), ... )`. Not used if custom target_model is given. initial_evidence : int, dict, optional Number of initial evidence or a precomputed batch dict containing parameter and discrepancy values. Default value depends on the dimensionality. update_interval : int, optional How often to update the GP hyperparameters of the target_model target_model : GPyRegression, optional acquisition_method : Acquisition, optional Method of acquiring evidence points. Defaults to LCBSC. acq_noise_var : float or dict, optional Variance(s) of the noise added in the default LCBSC acquisition method. If a dictionary, values should be float specifying the variance for each dimension. exploration_rate : float, optional Exploration rate of the acquisition method batch_size : int, optional Elfi batch size. Defaults to 1. batches_per_acquisition : int, optional How many batches will be requested from the acquisition function at one go. Defaults to max_parallel_batches. async_acq : bool, optional Allow acquisitions to be made asynchronously, i.e. do not wait for all the results from the previous acquisition before making the next. This can be more efficient with a large amount of workers (e.g. in cluster environments) but forgoes the guarantee for the exactly same result with the same initial conditions (e.g. the seed). Default False. **kwargs """ model, target_name = self._resolve_model(model, target_name) output_names = [target_name] + model.parameter_names super(BayesianOptimization, self).__init__( model, output_names, batch_size=batch_size, **kwargs) target_model = target_model or GPyRegression( self.model.parameter_names, bounds=bounds) self.target_name = target_name self.target_model = target_model n_precomputed = 0 n_initial, precomputed = self._resolve_initial_evidence( initial_evidence) if precomputed is not None: params = batch_to_arr2d(precomputed, self.target_model.parameter_names) n_precomputed = len(params) self.target_model.update(params, precomputed[target_name]) self.batches_per_acquisition = batches_per_acquisition or self.max_parallel_batches prior = ModelPrior(self.model, parameter_names=self.target_model.parameter_names) self.acquisition_method = acquisition_method or LCBSC(self.target_model, prior=prior, noise_var=acq_noise_var, exploration_rate=exploration_rate, seed=self.seed) self.n_initial_evidence = n_initial self.n_precomputed_evidence = n_precomputed self.update_interval = update_interval self.async_acq = async_acq self.state['n_evidence'] = self.n_precomputed_evidence self.state['last_GP_update'] = self.n_initial_evidence self.state['acquisition'] = [] def _resolve_initial_evidence(self, initial_evidence): # Some sensibility limit for starting GP regression precomputed = None n_required = max(10, 2**self.target_model.input_dim + 1) n_required = ceil_to_batch_size(n_required, self.batch_size) if initial_evidence is None: n_initial_evidence = n_required elif isinstance(initial_evidence, (int,, float)): n_initial_evidence = int(initial_evidence) else: precomputed = initial_evidence n_initial_evidence = len(precomputed[self.target_name]) if n_initial_evidence < 0: raise ValueError('Number of initial evidence must be positive or zero ' '(was {})'.format(initial_evidence)) elif n_initial_evidence < n_required: logger.warning('We recommend having at least {} initialization points for ' 'the initialization (now {})'.format(n_required, n_initial_evidence)) if precomputed is None and (n_initial_evidence % self.batch_size != 0): logger.warning('Number of initial_evidence %d is not divisible by ' 'batch_size %d. Rounding it up...' % (n_initial_evidence, self.batch_size)) n_initial_evidence = ceil_to_batch_size( n_initial_evidence, self.batch_size) return n_initial_evidence, precomputed @property def n_evidence(self): """Return the number of acquired evidence points.""" return self.state.get('n_evidence', 0) @property def acq_batch_size(self): """Return the total number of acquisition per iteration.""" return self.batch_size * self.batches_per_acquisition
[docs] def set_objective(self, n_evidence=None): """Set objective for inference. You can continue BO by giving a larger n_evidence. Parameters ---------- n_evidence : int Number of total evidence for the GP fitting. This includes any initial evidence. """ if n_evidence is None: n_evidence = self.objective.get('n_evidence', self.n_evidence) if n_evidence < self.n_evidence: logger.warning( 'Requesting less evidence than there already exists') self.objective['n_evidence'] = n_evidence self.objective['n_sim'] = n_evidence - self.n_precomputed_evidence
[docs] def extract_result(self): """Extract the result from the current state. Returns ------- OptimizationResult """ x_min, _ = stochastic_optimization( self.target_model.predict_mean, self.target_model.bounds, seed=self.seed) batch_min = arr2d_to_batch(x_min, self.target_model.parameter_names) outputs = arr2d_to_batch(self.target_model.X, self.target_model.parameter_names) # batch_min = arr2d_to_batch(x_min, self.parameter_names) # outputs = arr2d_to_batch(self.target_model.X, self.parameter_names) outputs[self.target_name] = self.target_model.Y return OptimizationResult( x_min=batch_min, outputs=outputs, **self._extract_result_kwargs())
[docs] def update(self, batch, batch_index): """Update the GP regression model of the target node with a new batch. Parameters ---------- batch : dict dict with `self.outputs` as keys and the corresponding outputs for the batch as values batch_index : int """ super(BayesianOptimization, self).update(batch, batch_index) self.state['n_evidence'] += self.batch_size params = batch_to_arr2d(batch, self.target_model.parameter_names) self._report_batch(batch_index, params, batch[self.target_name]) optimize = self._should_optimize() self.target_model.update(params, batch[self.target_name], optimize) if optimize: self.state['last_GP_update'] = self.target_model.n_evidence
[docs] def prepare_new_batch(self, batch_index): """Prepare values for a new batch. Parameters ---------- batch_index : int next batch_index to be submitted Returns ------- batch : dict or None Keys should match to node names in the model. These values will override any default values or operations in those nodes. """ t = self._get_acquisition_index(batch_index) # Check if we still should take initial points from the prior if t < 0: return # Take the next batch from the acquisition_batch acquisition = self.state['acquisition'] if len(acquisition) == 0: acquisition = self.acquisition_method.acquire( self.acq_batch_size, t=t) batch = arr2d_to_batch( acquisition[:self.batch_size], self.target_model.parameter_names) self.state['acquisition'] = acquisition[self.batch_size:] return batch
def _get_acquisition_index(self, batch_index): acq_batch_size = self.batch_size * self.batches_per_acquisition initial_offset = self.n_initial_evidence - self.n_precomputed_evidence starting_sim_index = self.batch_size * batch_index t = (starting_sim_index - initial_offset) // acq_batch_size return t # TODO: use state dict @property def _n_submitted_evidence(self): return * self.batch_size def _allow_submit(self, batch_index): if not super(BayesianOptimization, self)._allow_submit(batch_index): return False if self.async_acq: return True # Allow submitting freely as long we are still submitting initial evidence t = self._get_acquisition_index(batch_index) if t < 0: return True # Do not allow acquisition until previous acquisitions are ready (as well # as all initial acquisitions) acquisitions_left = len(self.state['acquisition']) if acquisitions_left == 0 and self.batches.has_pending: return False return True def _should_optimize(self): current = self.target_model.n_evidence + self.batch_size next_update = self.state['last_GP_update'] + self.update_interval return current >= self.n_initial_evidence and current >= next_update def _report_batch(self, batch_index, params, distances): str = "Received batch {}:\n".format(batch_index) fill = 6 * ' ' for i in range(self.batch_size): str += "{}{} at {}\n".format(fill, distances[i].item(), params[i]) logger.debug(str)
[docs] def plot_state(self, **options): """Plot the GP surface. This feature is still experimental and currently supports only 2D cases. """ f = plt.gcf() if len(f.axes) < 2: f, _ = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=( 13, 6), sharex='row', sharey='row') gp = self.target_model # Draw the GP surface visin.draw_contour( gp.predict_mean, gp.bounds, self.target_model.parameter_names, title='GP target surface', points=gp.X, axes=f.axes[0], **options) # Draw the latest acquisitions if options.get('interactive'): point = gp.X[-1, :] if len(gp.X) > 1: f.axes[1].scatter(*point, color='red') displays = [gp.instance] if options.get('interactive'): from IPython import display displays.insert( 0, display.HTML('<span><b>Iteration {}:</b> Acquired {} at {}</span>'.format( len(gp.Y), gp.Y[-1][0], point))) # Update visin._update_interactive(displays, options) acq_index = self._get_acquisition_index(self.state['n_batches']) def acq(x): return self.acquisition_method.evaluate(x, acq_index) # Draw the acquisition surface visin.draw_contour( acq, gp.bounds, self.target_model.parameter_names, title='Acquisition surface', points=None, axes=f.axes[1], **options) if options.get('close'): plt.close()
[docs] def plot_discrepancy(self, axes=None, **kwargs): """Plot acquired parameters vs. resulting discrepancy. Parameters ---------- axes : plt.Axes or arraylike of plt.Axes Return ------ axes : np.array of plt.Axes """ return vis.plot_discrepancy(self.target_model, self.target_model.parameter_names, axes=axes, **kwargs)
[docs] def plot_gp(self, axes=None, resol=50, const=None, bounds=None, true_params=None, **kwargs): """Plot pairwise relationships as a matrix with parameters vs. discrepancy. Parameters ---------- axes : matplotlib.axes.Axes, optional resol : int, optional Resolution of the plotted grid. const : np.array, optional Values for parameters in plots where held constant. Defaults to minimum evidence. bounds: list of tuples, optional List of tuples for axis boundaries. true_params : dict, optional Dictionary containing parameter names with corresponding true parameter values. Returns ------- axes : np.array of plt.Axes """ return vis.plot_gp(self.target_model, self.target_model.parameter_names, axes, resol, const, bounds, true_params, **kwargs)
[docs]class BOLFI(BayesianOptimization): """Bayesian Optimization for Likelihood-Free Inference (BOLFI). Approximates the discrepancy function by a stochastic regression model. Discrepancy model is fit by sampling the discrepancy function at points decided by the acquisition function. The method implements the framework introduced in Gutmann & Corander, 2016. References ---------- Gutmann M U, Corander J (2016). Bayesian Optimization for Likelihood-Free Inference of Simulator-Based Statistical Models. JMLR 17(125):1−47, 2016. """
[docs] def fit(self, n_evidence, threshold=None, bar=True): """Fit the surrogate model. Generates a regression model for the discrepancy given the parameters. Currently only Gaussian processes are supported as surrogate models. Parameters ---------- n_evidence : int, required Number of evidence for fitting threshold : float, optional Discrepancy threshold for creating the posterior (log with log discrepancy). bar : bool, optional Flag to remove (False) the progress bar from output. """"BOLFI: Fitting the surrogate model...") if n_evidence is None: raise ValueError( 'You must specify the number of evidence (n_evidence) for the fitting') self.infer(n_evidence, bar=bar) return self.extract_posterior(threshold)
[docs] def extract_posterior(self, threshold=None): """Return an object representing the approximate posterior. The approximation is based on surrogate model regression. Parameters ---------- threshold: float, optional Discrepancy threshold for creating the posterior (log with log discrepancy). Returns ------- posterior : elfi.methods.posteriors.BolfiPosterior """ if self.state['n_evidence'] == 0: raise ValueError( 'Model is not fitted yet, please see the `fit` method.') prior = ModelPrior(self.model, parameter_names=self.target_model.parameter_names) return BolfiPosterior(self.target_model, threshold=threshold, prior=prior)
[docs] def sample(self, n_samples, warmup=None, n_chains=4, threshold=None, initials=None, algorithm='nuts', sigma_proposals=None, n_evidence=None, **kwargs): r"""Sample the posterior distribution of BOLFI. Here the likelihood is defined through the cumulative density function of the standard normal distribution: L(\theta) \propto F((h-\mu(\theta)) / \sigma(\theta)) where h is the threshold, and \mu(\theta) and \sigma(\theta) are the posterior mean and (noisy) standard deviation of the associated Gaussian process. The sampling is performed with an MCMC sampler (the No-U-Turn Sampler, NUTS). Parameters ---------- n_samples : int Number of requested samples from the posterior for each chain. This includes warmup, and note that the effective sample size is usually considerably smaller. warmpup : int, optional Length of warmup sequence in MCMC sampling. Defaults to n_samples//2. n_chains : int, optional Number of independent chains. threshold : float, optional The threshold (bandwidth) for posterior (give as log if log discrepancy). initials : np.array of shape (n_chains, n_params), optional Initial values for the sampled parameters for each chain. Defaults to best evidence points. algorithm : string, optional Sampling algorithm to use. Currently 'nuts'(default) and 'metropolis' are supported. sigma_proposals : dict, optional Standard deviations for Gaussian proposals of each parameter for Metropolis Markov Chain sampler. Defaults to 1/10 of surrogate model bound lengths. n_evidence : int If the regression model is not fitted yet, specify the amount of evidence Returns ------- BolfiSample """ if self.state['n_batches'] == 0: # TODO: add more MCMC algorithms if algorithm not in ['nuts', 'metropolis']: raise ValueError("Unknown posterior sampler.") posterior = self.extract_posterior(threshold) warmup = warmup or n_samples // 2 # Unless given, select the evidence points with smallest discrepancy if initials is not None: if np.asarray(initials).shape != (n_chains, self.target_model.input_dim): raise ValueError( "The shape of initials must be (n_chains, n_params).") else: inds = np.argsort(self.target_model.Y[:, 0]) initials = np.asarray(self.target_model.X[inds]) self.target_model.is_sampling = True # enables caching for default RBF kernel tasks_ids = [] ii_initial = 0 if algorithm == 'metropolis': sigma_proposals = resolve_sigmas(self.target_model.parameter_names, sigma_proposals, self.target_model.bounds) # sampling is embarrassingly parallel, so depending on self.client this may parallelize for ii in range(n_chains): seed = get_sub_seed(self.seed, ii) # discard bad initialization points while np.isinf(posterior.logpdf(initials[ii_initial])): ii_initial += 1 if ii_initial == len(inds): raise ValueError( "BOLFI.sample: Cannot find enough acceptable initialization points!") if algorithm == 'nuts': tasks_ids.append( self.client.apply( mcmc.nuts, n_samples, initials[ii_initial], posterior.logpdf, posterior.gradient_logpdf, n_adapt=warmup, seed=seed, **kwargs)) elif algorithm == 'metropolis': tasks_ids.append( self.client.apply( mcmc.metropolis, n_samples, initials[ii_initial], posterior.logpdf, sigma_proposals, warmup, seed=seed, **kwargs)) ii_initial += 1 # get results from completed tasks or run sampling (client-specific) chains = [] for id in tasks_ids: chains.append(self.client.get_result(id)) chains = np.asarray(chains) print( "{} chains of {} iterations acquired. Effective sample size and Rhat for each " "parameter:".format(n_chains, n_samples)) for ii, node in enumerate(self.target_model.parameter_names): print(node, mcmc.eff_sample_size(chains[:, :, ii]), mcmc.gelman_rubin_statistic(chains[:, :, ii])) self.target_model.is_sampling = False return BolfiSample( method_name='BOLFI', chains=chains, parameter_names=self.target_model.parameter_names, warmup=warmup, threshold=float(posterior.threshold), n_sim=self.state['n_evidence'], seed=self.seed)